Counter-UAS research

Counter-UAS Market Outlook

Explore UXV Searcher’s fixed global counter-UAS scenario and its detection, command-and-control, mitigation and services components. Saved estimates, forecast years and independently calculated endpoint CAGRs remain distinct from reported spending.

How to read this evidence

The global scenario is a saved proprietary model snapshot, not a newly refreshed or independently validated forecast. Detailed geographic allocations and annual drivers require review; no country ranking or supplier share is inferred.

Define the market consistently

Counter-UAS scope can include detection, tracking, identification, command systems, mitigation and associated services. Comparisons require consistent geography, time period, currency, scope and treatment of overlapping system capabilities.

Use approved evidence as context

Programme disclosures can identify procurement interest and funding context. System descriptions can map technology coverage. Neither alone establishes realized supplier revenue or the size of the entire counter-UAS market.

UXV Searcher proprietary market research

Anti-drone market size, forecast and CAGR

Proprietary model snapshot • Estimates and forecasts, not reported actuals

Saved aggregate scenario; endpoint CAGRs recalculated. The forecast has not been refreshed or independently validated. Detailed geographic allocations and annual drivers remain under review.

In UXV Searcher’s fixed proprietary scenario, the global counter-UAS market rises from USD 9.17 billion in 2026 to USD 29.70 billion in 2031. The compound annual growth implied by those saved endpoints is 26.5% over five annual intervals.

Global model snapshot · USD million · Estimates and forecasts · Display rounded to one decimal; calculations use unrounded saved values.
Model scope2026 estimate2031 forecast2026–2031 CAGRModeled increase
Global counter-UAS market9,173.829,695.726.5%20,521.9
Drone Detection, Tracking & IdentificationComponent of the global total1,141.83,340.824.0%2,199.1
Command & Control (C2)Component of the global total1,678.85,832.328.3%4,153.5
UAS Mitigation & NeutralizationComponent of the global total5,128.117,958.528.5%12,830.4
ServicesComponent of the global total1,225.12,564.015.9%1,338.9

UXV Searcher insight: where the modeled expansion concentrates

The total scenario expands by USD 20.52 billion between 2026 and 2031. Mitigation and neutralization account for 62.5% of that modeled increase, calculated as the component increase divided by the total increase. This identifies where the scenario concentrates growth; it does not measure awarded contracts or realized sales.

Turn the scenario into a research question

For a market-entry or supplier team, connect the modeled solution categories to documented programme stages, integration requirements and supplier capacity. A modeled revenue pool is a starting point for scoping addressable demand; it does not identify a funded customer opportunity by itself.

View the 2021–2031 annual scenario
All years are model values: 2021–2025 historical-year estimates; 2026 scenario base estimate; 2027–2031 forecasts. These are not reported actuals.
Scope · USD million20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Global counter-UAS market3,396.13,802.74,375.75,455.17,406.49,173.811,374.714,285.318,083.423,105.529,695.7
Drone Detection, Tracking & Identification466.9512.5578.2706.7940.61,141.81,387.41,707.52,118.32,652.53,340.8
Command & Control (C2)737.9838.2978.31,237.11,703.51,678.82,110.92,688.83,452.34,474.05,832.3
UAS Mitigation & Neutralization1,656.81,884.72,203.52,791.33,851.35,128.16,459.68,240.810,596.813,754.617,958.5
Services534.4567.3615.7720.1911.01,225.11,416.81,648.11,916.02,224.52,564.0

Source and method

These figures present a fixed scenario from UXV Searcher’s proprietary counter-UAS model. All amounts are in USD million. Historical-year amounts are model estimates, and future values are forecasts rather than reported spending or booked supplier revenue. Detection, command and control, mitigation, and services are components of the same model total and must not be added to it. The 2026–2031 CAGR uses five annual intervals and is recalculated directly from the displayed series endpoints. This release uses saved aggregate values rather than a fresh model recalculation; underlying geographic allocations and forecast-year drivers require further review. The model’s original revision date and constant-price or current-price basis are not specified. Publication and extraction dates do not make the forecast a newly updated market assessment.

CAGR = (2031 value ÷ 2026 value)^(1 ÷ 5) − 1. Percentage-point changes subtract shares; they are different from percentage growth. Rounded table components can differ slightly from rounded totals.

Source: UXV Searcher proprietary counter-UAS market scenario. Saved-value arithmetic checked 1 November 2026. Original model revision date and price basis are not specified. Country and regional outputs are excluded while their allocation labels are reconciled.

Analysis: Avantika Kapoor · AI-assisted source and calculation review.

Explore the evidence

Choose a table and open a record to review its source, date and limitations. Search and category selections stay within this view.

Public sample
Fixed public sample
2
Programs and commercial events · unfiltered sample rows
Retained catalog coverage
310
Rows in this dataset; not a market total
Catalog reference period
Mixed dated source records
Each record retains its own source date
Current access
Public preview
Additional records require module permission

Programs and commercial events

Schema-mapped, source-linked workbook records for licensed historical research. Current status is not reverified and amounts are not additive. Malformed or unlinked records are withheld.

Checking module access; public evidence remains available.

2 matching sample records · 2 fixed public records before filters. Catalog coverage: 310 retained rows. Counts describe research rows with the scope stated above.

Programs and commercial events. Expand a record for evidence, limitations and source links.
Record and evidenceProgram / eventOrganizationActivityGeography as suppliedAnnouncement date, where establishedSource-record value
Cerberus XL supply contractOpen evidence and sources

Evidence record AD-PREVIEW-004

Organization
Teledyne FLIR Defense / Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace
Program / event
Cerberus XL supply contract
Activity
Supplier contract announcement
Geography as supplied
Ukraine (announced end use)
Announcement date, where established
2023-08-29
Source-record value
USD 31 million (approximately)
Value scope
Announced supplier contract; not the total Ukraine programme budget, delivered units or expenditure.
Reported summary
On 29 August 2023, Teledyne FLIR Defense announced a roughly US$31 million Kongsberg contract for Cerberus XL platforms, software, spares, support and training within a wider counter-UAS solution for Ukraine.
Evidence label
Historical supplier contract announcement
Verification scope
Announcement date, named parties, stated value and scope; fulfilment and present contract status are not reverified.
Source check date
2026-11-01
Amount Aggregation Allowed
No
Verified Current Status
No
Record Basis
CURATED_PRIMARY_SOURCE_PREVIEW
Cerberus XL supply contractTeledyne FLIR Defense / Kongsberg Defence & AerospaceSupplier contract announcementUkraine (announced end use)2023-08-29USD 31 million (approximately)
PARADE programme commitmentsOpen evidence and sources

Evidence record AD-PREVIEW-005

Organization
Thales / CS GROUP
Program / event
PARADE programme commitments
Activity
Programme commitment announcement
Geography as supplied
France
Announcement date, where established
2022-04-29
Source-record value
EUR 33 million (as_announced)
Value scope
Firm commitments stated in the 2022 announcement; not the full multi-year programme budget or verified expenditure.
Reported summary
On 29 April 2022, Thales announced that the French defence procurement agency had selected the Thales and CS GROUP consortium for PARADE, with EUR33 million in firm commitments.
Evidence label
Historical prime-contractor announcement
Verification scope
Announcement date, named parties, stated firm commitments and programme identity; fulfilment and present status are not reverified.
Source check date
2026-11-01
Amount Aggregation Allowed
No
Verified Current Status
No
Record Basis
CURATED_PRIMARY_SOURCE_PREVIEW
PARADE programme commitmentsThales / CS GROUPProgramme commitment announcementFrance2022-04-29EUR 33 million (as_announced)

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Research questions

What do these market values represent?

They are saved values from the proprietary scenario, released with owner authorization. Aggregate arithmetic and five-interval endpoint CAGRs were checked. This does not certify the underlying assumptions or imply that the model was freshly recalculated.

How can programme budgets inform market research?

They provide context when the budget stage, period, currency and programme scope are clear. A requested or authorized amount is not automatically an obligation, contract award or supplier revenue.